Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders hope New York is their kind of city as primaries come to a head

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Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders hope New York is their kind of city as primaries come to a head

The race for New York is personal for three of the four frontrunners in the American presidential primaries, writes Paul McGeough.

By Paul McGeough
Updated

With apologies to Frank Sinatra, a whole political posse wants to "wake up in a city that doesn't sleep" – yup, that's New York, New York. They need to find they're "king of the hill, top of the heap" – a win in Tuesday's Democratic and Republican presidential primaries could fix that.

Three huge political egos dominate these races. New Yorkers all, they're vying on home turf to be president of the United States – they include native-born insurgents of different hues, the Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders; and a New Yorker by adoption, former US senator and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

New York is Trump's city, and these are his people.

New York is Trump's city, and these are his people. Credit: AP

The Democratic race is tightening. But according to polls, not sufficiently to continue the underdog Sanders' clean sweep over Clinton of all seven primary ballots and caucuses since March 22 – from Idaho, to Wisconsin to Wyoming.

At the start of April, a 30-point gap in Clinton's favour in the Real Clear Politics average of polls in New York seemed to be closing dramatically, kindling hope in the Sanders camp that the Brooklyn-born Vermont senator was on the verge of inflicting a humiliating defeat on Clinton by robbing her of a Democratic jewel – the blessing of the Big Apple and the convention delegates that come with it.

Democratic presidential candidates Senator Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton speak during the CNN debate in Brooklyn on Thursday.

Democratic presidential candidates Senator Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton speak during the CNN debate in Brooklyn on Thursday.Credit: AP

But as the gap narrowed to 10 points the momentum for Sanders stalled; and this week the polls have been tweaking back towards Clinton – by Wednesday, the gap had opened to 13.3 points.

In a testy encounter in a CNN debate in Brooklyn on Thursday evening, both Sanders and Clinton fought for two solid hours, chasing every undecided vote that might still be lurking in New York state.

They mocked and belittled each other, but the underlying themes were Clinton as a status-quo candidate, lecturing the people on why change doesn't come in a hurry; while Sanders stood with them, using broad brush strokes to paint a brave new world that is or isn't too good to believe.

On the Republican side, Trump is polling so strongly over his nearest challenger – Texas Senator Ted Cruz – that he could stay in bed till after Tuesday's vote and still win.

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Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate.

Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate.Credit: Bloomberg

But the real estate mogul whose name adorns the Manhattan skyline was out and about, not as brash as before the thrashing he took in the Wisconsin vote on April 5, but continuing to draw attention to himself – and sucking the oxygen of media attention away from most others in the races.

An anti-immigration extremist, Trump provocatively took his rhetoric to Patchogue, on Long Island. On Thursday evening he attended a fundraiser at a night club just blocks from where an Ecuadorian immigrant was knifed to death eight years ago by a gang of white teenagers who confessed to regular attacks on Hispanic immigrants – a pursuit they called "beaner hopping".

Attendees hold signs while waiting in line before a campaign event for Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont.

Attendees hold signs while waiting in line before a campaign event for Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont.Credit: Bloomberg

Amid tight police security, supporters of the murdered man, Marcelo Lucero held a vigil in his memory. His brother Joselo Lucero told reporters: "[Trump] is going to have a fundraiser and I think that money is dirty, dirty and it's stained with blood – I believe he knows what he is doing and that's why he came here."

The previous day, a conference of black community leaders gave Clinton what The New York Times rated a "tepid" response, just days after her husband, former president Bill Clinton, clashed with protesters over the harshness of his 1990s crackdown on gangs and drugs.

People wait in line to see Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders at Temple University in Philadelphia.

People wait in line to see Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders at Temple University in Philadelphia.Credit: Philadelphia Inquirer/AP

if Trump is channelling the anger and anxiety of middle-aged and older white, middle-class voters, Sanders is a voice for millions of younger voters who sense they are being cut out of the American dream.

And downtown, a bedazzled crowd estimated by the Sanders campaign to be 27,000, waited for hours on a chilly April afternoon to hear the rock band Vampire Weekend and actor Tim Robbins introduce Sanders in an iconic protest setting.

New Yorkers have come to Washington Square for decades to demand, defend and condemn – gay rights; anti-war; police brutality. Floodlit against the imposing marble arch that dominates the square, Sanders flailed his arms in characteristic fashion, an old man enthralling a predominantly young crowd as he amped up his attacks on Clinton and the Washington political machine.

An supporter holds a sign for Senator Bernie Sanders.

An supporter holds a sign for Senator Bernie Sanders.Credit: Bloomberg

Speaking for more than an hour, Sanders attacked "corporate greed and the rigged economy". Calling for a political revolution, he demanded "a government that works for all of us, not just wealthy campaign contributors".

He condemned Clinton's vote for the invasion of Iraq and her cosy relationship with the Republican national security adviser Henry Kissinger – "In my view, one of the most destructive secretaries of state in the history of our country; I certainly wouldn't welcome his praise".

The people of New York have proven to be fans of Donald Trump.

The people of New York have proven to be fans of Donald Trump. Credit: AP

Facing downtown, in the direction of Wall Street and into a sea of protesters whose placards were mostly home-made, Sanders railed against the source of funding for Clinton's campaign and its associated super PACs, thundering: "This campaign is sending a message to corporate America: You cannot have it all."

Like other Sanders rallies, it reminded some of the Occupy protests of 2011 and 2012. There were echoes too of the 1960s – shades of the Woodstock music festival; and more deeply, a reflection of opposition to the Vietnam War – but without the 1960s sense of rebellion, according to a mother in the crowd who spoke to Fairfax Media.

This rally seemed to lay bare a mistake in the US media's obsessive coverage of the divisions in the Republican Party: paying far less attention to the Democratic Party.

For if Trump is channelling the anger and anxiety of middle-aged and older white, middle-class voters, Sanders is a voice for millions of younger voters who sense they are being cut out of the American dream.

Mark Weisbrot makes the point in a piece for Huffpost Politics. A co-director of the Washington-based Centre for Economic and Policy Research, he writes: "If it weren't for voters over 49 and their higher participation rates, Hillary Clinton wouldn't have much of a chance [against Sanders]."

Weisbrot focuses on the progressive end of the political spectrum, but while the ages and issues are different, he might also be talking of the GOP in observing that at times in history important narratives lose credibility, that the range of political possibilities expands and that often it's young people who are quicker to respond.

He cites the Vietnam War as a classic example. "Young people knew something very important that most older Americans did not understand," he writes of a war rooted in a "deeply entrenched Cold War narrative that the US was engaged in an existential battle with communism".

Observing that older Americans are driven more by their fears, whereas the young vote according to their hopes, he figures: "Young people are not as steeped in the Cold War narrative, and so Hillary's foreign policy experience – her support for the wars in Iraq, Syria, Libya and for potential war in Iran – does not impress them at all.

"The 'War on Terror' is in many ways a somewhat flimsier but self-perpetuating replacement for the Cold War as a justification for our current state of permanent military conflict," Weisbrot says.

At Washington Square, Sanders reminded his audience of his impossible race against the Clinton machine. In March last year, the gap between himself and the former secretary of state in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls was a seemingly unbridgeable 50 points in Clinton's favour. But support for Clinton slipped steadily as Sanders' star rose – and by Wednesday of this week, the gap had closed to an improbable one point only in Clinton's favour.

Clinton has been here before. Running against Barack Obama for the nomination in 2008, she won more than 57 per cent of the Democratic primary vote – whopping the upstart from Chicago by 17 points. She has big-name endorsements and the Sanders campaign is left to point to a couple of recent votes as proof of change – including voters bucking the establishment script in 2013 to elect a rank outsider, Bill de Blasio, as mayor of New York over the party machine's anointed candidate.

The numbers seem to favour Clinton. As analysed by The New Yorker's John Cassidy, back in 2008, 55 per cent of voters were women and almost two-thirds of them voted for Clinton. About 30 per cent were non-whites and despite Obama's candidacy, Clinton ran away with more than a third of the black vote and close to three-quarters of the Hispanic vote. That core support for Clinton seems to have remained intact, Cassidy writes.

On the Republican side, national polling tells a story at odds with the nail-biting expectation that the frontrunner Trump in fact will fail to win enough convention delegates; that the GOP nomination will be decided on the floor of the party convention in Cleveland – and that Trump quite likely will not be the candidate.

In March, the influential number-crunching blog FiveThirtyEight predicted that Trump would fall just a handful short of the required 1237 delegates he needs – and that he'd be able to seduce the 30-odd delegates he would still need to switch to his camp from those of other candidates. This week the blog revised its prediction – effectively doubling Trump's likely shortfall to 60-plus delegates, which it also predicts puts the nomination beyond the seductive powers of the Trump campaign.

When national polls are averaged, Trump is on about 40 points; Cruz lags Trump by about 10 points; and in third place, Kasich lags Cruz, again by about 10 points.

But in the New York race, support for Trump is so strong that he could stay in until Tuesday's vote and still come out on top. At almost 54 per cent this week, support for Trump has been running at more than double that for Cruz since the end of March.

Observing Wednesday's crowd in Washington Square revealed the excitement of being on the cusp of change. But to be outflanked by a well-oiled party machine and one of America's more determined political dynasties, a.k.a. the Clintons, and to be left hanging on the cusp of change underscores the unifying challenge that faces both parties once they have settled on a presidential nominee.

Just as big proportions of the insurgent Trump's GOP supporters say they would not vote for nominee Cruz – and vice versa; big numbers of Sanders loyalists say they would not vote for nominee Clinton in a general election.

Presuming that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, Steve Almond, observes at Salon.com: "Barring a miracle, they will nominate an establishment candidate who is at best tepidly supported, and at worst reviled, by those who have rallied behind her insurgent foe ... an elderly socialist from Vermont.

"Bernie Sanders hasn't moved the Democratic base to the left. He's revealed a base that has always been there, one that is tired of accepting 'the lesser of two evils' as an electoral argument."

Back to Frank:

"If I can make it there, I'll make it anywhere. It's up to you. New York, New York …"

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